![]() We began our investigation by focusing on a literally existential outcome-human casualties. The chains of causality that link weather radars to societal benefits are vast and complex. As we make plans for future sensor networks, including replacement of the current weather radars, benefit monetization is needed to evaluate the trade-off between performance and cost ( Hondl and Weber 2019). Meteorological radars, however, are costly to acquire, operate, and maintain. Behind the scenes, these radars generate crucial information that leads to better numerical weather predictions and help meteorologists make severe weather warning decisions (e.g., Stensrud et al. Broadcast meteorologists use “Doppler radar” video loops for illustration, and people consult the latest weather radar images on their smart phones while contemplating the timing of their outdoor activities. How much are meteorological radars worth to society? Data from weather radars have become a commonplace feature in everyday life (e.g., Saunders et al. Aggregating these nontornadic thunderstorm wind results with estimates from earlier tornado and flash flood cost reduction models yields a total benefit of $1.12 billion yr −1 for the present-day radars and a remaining radar-based benefit pool of $778M yr −1. The remaining benefit pool with respect to enhanced radar coverage and scan update rate is about $36M yr −1. ![]() weather radar network, yields a benefit estimate of $207 million (M) yr −1 relative to no radar coverage at all. This model, applied to the current contiguous U.S. In combination, these statistical relationships form the basis of a cost model that can be differenced between radar network configurations to generate geospatial benefit density maps. Furthermore, nontornadic thunderstorm wind casualty rates are observed to be negatively correlated with better warning performance. Regression analyses on 22 years (1998–2019) of storm event and warning data show, likely for the first time, a clear dependence of nontornadic severe thunderstorm warning performance on radar coverage. Modeled relative contributions of tornado, flash flood, and nontornadic thunderstorm wind in the CONUS to (top) mean annual cost, (middle) annual benefit provided by the current radar network, and (bottom) remaining annual benefit pool that would be given by perfect radar coverage and rapid-scan capability.Īn econometric geospatial benefit model for nontornadic thunderstorm wind casualty reduction is developed for meteorological radar network planning. Modeled mean annual nontornadic thunderstorm wind casualty rate density for the current weather radar network.ĭifference in modeled mean annual nontornadic thunderstorm wind casualty cost density between the perfect radar coverage with rapid-scan case and the baseline (current radar network) case. Mean annual nontornadic thunderstorm wind occurrence rate density. The median lead time is 1200 s (20 min), regardless of whether negative lead times are included. Histogram of SVR warning lead times for nontornadic thunderstorm wind events. White indicates areas with no SVR warning issued during the respective period. Historical SVR warning false alarm ratio (top) from to, in the county-based warning era, and (bottom) from to, in the storm-based warning era. Mean annual nontornadic thunderstorm wind casualty density. Dashed lines correspond to a rapid-scanning radar case. Plots of (top left) SVR probability of detection vs FVO, (top right) SVR probability of detection vs CHR, (bottom left) SVR false alarm ratio vs FVO, and (bottom right) SVR false alarm ratio vs CHR. WSR-88D (squares) and TDWR (crosses) locations in the CONUS. Computational model components are shown as orange ovals. Input data are denoted by gray rectangles, intermediate data products are shown by green rectangles, and monetized cost output is shown by a blue rectangle. (top) Development and (bottom) usage block diagrams of the radar network severe thunderstorm casualty cost model. Number of casualties in the United States from tornadoes, flash floods, nontornadic thunderstorm winds, hail, and lightning.
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